Telecom Industry Transition: WiFi, VoIP, WiMax - The Wireless Age is Already Here


VoIP on WiMax will make the latest 3G technologies obsolete before they are completely installed. The reason is because 3G cell phone technology is capable of 2Mbs while WiFi is at 11Mbs in bursts and WiMax will be even greater therefore 3G is not needed as VoIP over WiMax is going to provide more data, faster speeds and greater numbers of users. WiFi and WiMax may actually solve the goals of conquering the digital divide. There will be a small price for this disruptive technology. There will be small legal battles fought such as this one over territory with government agencies and private sector. In the WiFi Online Newsletter commenting on a Wall Street Journal Article we saw Verizon fighting with the City of Philadelphia over their city wide WiFi and if you think about it they do potentially have quite a bit to lose don't they?

There will also be issues with frequency pollution from other uses in close proximity of the frequency band being sent out. There will be issues with the human biological system, birds, animals and pets. There will also layoffs caused by such disruption and some bluff layoffs to sway political intervention thru careful manipulation of "K-Street" style guerilla lobbying. There will also be issues with first to market and frequency allocations from the FCC. There will be consumer complaints due to bandwidth being used up and services too slow for users.

There are already some heated battles going on with the use of power lines to deliver Internet to the home because it will disrupt Ham Operators. The layoffs in Telecom have been astronomical in recent years. New technologies while they give the industry new life, new directions to grow they also provide for some fierce competition between players. One of the most recent issues was the VoIP FCC ruling, which said that VoIP couldn't be taxed by states, as it is an Internet Service not a phone service. This was a major ruling for the VoIP Industry and will add billions of dollars in capital from investment banks and venture capital firms.

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Recently I was at a WiFi Verizon Hot Spot and there were six people with computers there, two playing video games on the Internet, One using VoIP another downloading a big file, needless to say surfing at any acceptable speed or collecting 1000 emails (most 90% SPAM) was out of the question. Although patrons have paid $19.95 per month for internet access there will be issues with speed and bandwidth as the Internet is soaked up by VoIP and excessive emails. WiMax promises to solve this problem with speeds of 75MB per second as opposed to the WiFi burst speeds of 11MB or the mobile satellite solutions at 1-2 MB per second. Still all of these solutions blow out of the water the old dial up speeds. 3G Wireless was thought to be the savior, yet with speeds on the very lowest end of the spectrum, even devices like the Blackberry (RIMM), or the AT & T iGO do not stand a chance on such services.

Right now 3G network is nearly complete and works good for phone calls and instant messaging, but is quite lacking for video or picture emailing. As new devices come out such as movie watching, music downloads, projection video, hologram messages, 3G, 4G even 5G and what some in the industry call 6G will not be able to use with the current 3G towers across the nation. Even with 1000:1 algorithm compression there is a limit on the devices and system. The Telecom Industry has taken a huge hit in the last five years with massive layoffs, accounting irregularities and overpriced bidding for frequency allocation, which amounted to investments based on pie in the sky wishful thinking potential consumer numbers even from a monopolistic standpoint, it was simply not possible. The frenzy to over pay for these frequencies was out of control and we saw the fallout occur as predicted by many an insider.

So how does the future look now? Well, all in all things are looking good, we have capital flows to new entrants, large corporations finding partners and re-investing profits in an industry which seems to have new life blood and can be called anything but static.

"Lance Winslow" - If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs">www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs


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